Analysis. Daniel Cohen, a professor at the Ecole Normale Superieure, prolific author and advisor to Lazard, gave two lectures at Toulouse for the supervision of the Caisse d'Epargne Midi-Pyrenees and on the occasion of the General Assembly Agrimip of Innovation. Meeting.
In 2010 the crisis is still there. What are the scenarios out of it?
must first know what we are talking about. The starting point is a crisis as severe as that of the thirties remember it. With a leading indicator: the world trade fell by 20% within six months. Even after 1929 we did not observe a decline of such magnitude. The initial impetus of the 2009 crisis is certainly comparable to the thirties with the financial mechanisms of the same register. But the big difference is that we reacted very considerable and effective.
you think we're out of the crisis ...
Basically yes, if we place ourselves on a macroeconomic level. Most countries with negative growth were the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008. It is clear that France, a year later, in late 2009 has found a way out of this crisis, admittedly slight, but real. Overall we came out of this dark period much faster than expected because the world has avoided the same mistakes in 1929. If we had, as then, let the banks go bankrupt, it was all over. It is estimated that over this period the losses of financial institutions were in the order of 2 300 billion, the first estimates of the International Monetary Fund had forecast same sur 4 000 milliards, actuellement il ne reste de cette facture qu’un tiers environ. Même chose toujours si l’on compare avec les années trente. À cette époque on a assisté à une forte progression du protectionnisme avec une certaine orthodoxie budgétaire. En 2009 on a vu le poids accru du G20. C’est pratiquement le contraire.
Tout n’est pas réglé toutefois et les conséquences sont lourdes…
La principale des conséquences, outre la montée du chômage, est bien sûr l’accumulation de politiques budgétaires très laxistes dont les effets commencent sérieusement à inquiéter. Nous sommes passés d’un ratio dette Public gross domestic product by 60% to 100%. In the case of Greece it is on something like 115 points. We do not, moreover, we in France, on completely different planets ...
The reaction of the international community it is up to these challenges?
we can see, she has responded well overall, but there are many weaknesses with elements of recurrences that are wondering if we would go back with the innocent enthusiasm again to save the banks if there was to new need. Especially since public opinion is very annoyed. The situation
of Greece illustrates these tensions. The case of this country have been well managed by you?
This is an area of extreme tension. It is dramatic, if not pathological, the way the situation was handled by Europe. There was a strong hostility on the part of Germans who did not want to hear the need to intervene. Procrastination that have in the end it finally became clear that Greece had to be saved if we wanted to save Europe. Having waited and was eventually rated very heavy. However, if Europe had intervened at the outset would have been simpler and cheaper.
This crisis has a way of Europe's bluff?
I think, more generally, this period led to a genuine examination of conscience in the euro area. Be aware, one of the constituent States is threatened by a risk of bankruptcy. For the Germans, for example is literally the horror of being involved in a rescue plan to a state too lax. Europe is re-located and his old demons and it is imperative to overcome the challenges of the future.
A future that looks rather blurred. Our development models are they still relevant ?
Une des principales qualités de cette crise traversée, à toute chose malheur est bonne, c’est qu’elle remet fondamentalement en cause notre modèle de croissance. Un peu à l’image de ce qui s’est passé dans l’immédiate après-guerre. Il a fallu trouver absolument un nouvel équilibre économique et social de marché. Sommes-nous aujourd’hui à l’aube d’un nouveau modèle ? Oui et non. Je pense que nous y sommes entrés, mais il est encore tout jeune. Si l’on compare aux grandes innovations industrielles de la fin du XIXe siècle, notre ère est celle de l’informatique qui a décollé réellement à la fin des années quatre-vingt-dix. C’est un nouveau monde dans lequel nous sommes désormais avec de nouveaux instruments de croissance, de l’énergie informationnelle, de l’intelligence, de l’innovation. Tous ces secteurs seront encore plus importants que par le passé.
Une innovation qui modifie en profondeur les organisations et génère beaucoup d’incertitudes aussi…
Avant l’on devait faire entrer l’innovation dans les productions existantes, à l’image par exemple du développement de l’automobile. Aujourd’hui, elle est dans un espace beaucoup plus en amont de la production. Il y a des tas de business models à développer, l’innovation est à la fois plus folle et moins cadrée. Les paramètres sont très simples : cette innovation génère par définition beaucoup de destruction création d’emplois. À l’image de ce qui se passe par exemple dans la presse ou la banque avec l’irruption des nouvelles technologies depuis quelques années. De ce fait il y a beaucoup d’incertitudes. Il s’agit en fait moins de trouver un nouveau modèle de croissance que d’essayer à la lumière de cette crise de trouver un nouveau cadre dans lequel s’exprimer.
C’est-à-dire ?
On le voit sur le plan social, nous sommes actuellement dans un monde à l’envers avec des situations ridicules Compensation as crazy for soccer players and artists. We must find a new equilibrium. Same thing on the ecology where it is clear that there is a new frontier is emerging. Taking for example the approach of Steve Jobs, the boss of Apple, it is clear that it is redefining the publishing industry with its technology and not the other way with a book industry in innovative within it. On this relatively simple business models. In fact, earlier, according to Schumpeter, we had a process of creative destruction of jobs, now the opposite is true with the destruction creative. Interview by Hervé
Chossat
0 comments:
Post a Comment